双语•智库 | 中欧智库花18个月研究：未来8年须做这8件事【附译词】

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本期为第四期，智库文章选自国际知名智库英国皇家国际事务研究所（Chatham House，又称查塔姆研究所）。

EU–China Economic Relations to 2025: Building a Common Future

欧盟与中国的经济关系2025：共筑未来

This report is the culmination of an 18-month study by Bruegel, Chatham House, the China Center for International Economic Exchanges and the Institute of Global Economics and Finance at The Chinese University of Hong Kong. The project was supported by a senior advisory group, with input from former ministers on both the European and Chinese sides.

该报告是布鲁盖尔研究所、查塔姆研究所、中国国际经济交流中心、香港中文大学全球经济及金融研究所历时18个月调研后打造的巅峰之作，项目得到了囊括欧中前部长在内的高级顾问团的支持。

The report identifies key trends and areas of potential economic collaboration in the coming decade. It cites the ‘significant opportunities’ and benefits for the two global powers to deepen their economic ties, with scope for an ‘enormous increase’ in investment in both directions. The study, however, also documents the obstacles - including significant differences between political and economic systems - which could frustrate increased collaboration, and argues that building a genuine strategic partnership will require greater effort from both EU and Chinese leaders.

报告明确了未来十年潜在经济合作的主要趋势和领域，并指出了欧中两个世界巨头深化经济合作所面临的重大机遇和利益，以及双向投资显著增长的范围。不过，调研结果也提到了扩大合作可能面临的阻碍，比如政治和经济体制的巨大差异，所以建立真正的战略合作伙伴关系还需要欧中双方领导人付出更多努力。

The report notes that: 

报告重点：

This is a critically important moment for the EU and China to consider how to deepen the full range of their bilateral economic relationship by increasing trade and investment, promoting cooperation in the areas of climate change, energy and the environment, and global governance, collaborating in science, technology and innovation, infrastructure, and financial services, and engaging in people-to-people exchanges.

当前正值欧盟与中国考虑如何通过增加贸易与投资，促进气候变化、能源和环境、全球治理、科研合作、技术创新、基础设施、金融服务以及人文交流方面的合作，来全面深化双边经济关系的关键时期。

While EU-China trade relations are well developed, this is not yet reflected in other areas of economic activity. Beyond trade in goods, many areas of EU-China economic interaction remain under-developed, including trade in services, levels of foreign investment, cooperation on industrial and technological innovation, and financial market integration.

尽管欧中贸易关系已十分发达，但在其他领域的经济活动中却鲜有体现。除货物贸易以外，欧中经济互动在很多方面存在不足，包括服务贸易、外来投资水准、工业科技创新合作以及金融市场一体化。

Current stocks of cumulative direct investments between the EU and China remain much lower than between the EU and US. In 2015, the stock of EU foreign direct investment (FDI) in mainland China (not including Hong Kong) amounted to €168 billion, while the investment stock from mainland China in the EU was only €35 billion. This contrasts with the stock of EU FDI in the US of €2.6 trillion and the US FDI stock in the EU of €2.4 trillion. These low EU-China FDI stocks show that there is scope for an enormous increase in investment in both directions.

当前欧盟与中国之间的累计直接投资存量远低于欧盟与美国之间的存量。2015年，欧盟在中国大陆（不包括香港）的外商直接投资存量达到1680亿欧元（约合人民币13128亿元），而同期中国大陆对欧盟的投资存量仅为350亿欧元（约合人民币2734亿元）。这与欧盟对美国的2.6万亿欧元（约合人民币20万亿元）外商直接投资以及美国对欧盟的2.4万亿欧元（约合人民币18万亿元）外商直接投资形成鲜明对比。欧中之间较低的外商直接投资存量表明，双方在互相投资上还有较大的提升空间。

European and Chinese economic models are unlikely to converge in the foreseeable future. Significant differences between the political and economic systems of the EU and China add to the challenges of deepening their bilateral economic ties. Despite challenges, the EU and Chinese economies will remain inextricably linked. It is incumbent upon governments and businesses on both sides to find ways to overcome current obstacles and to design realistic and pragmatic ways to build on their existing relations. EU and Chinese leaders should build on the existing EU–China 2020 Strategic Agenda for Cooperation, re-stating their common interests in the new global context, while also recognising more candidly their differences, and prioritising progress where it is achievable and where relations are currently under-developed.

在可预见的未来，欧中各自的经济模式不太可能融合，欧盟与中国在政治和经济体制上的巨大差异为深化双边经济合作带来更多挑战。虽然如此，双方经济将一如既往地紧密联系在一起，这就要求双方政府和企业找到克服当前阻碍的方法，制定切实可行的办法让现有关系更上一层楼。欧盟和中国领导人应以“欧中合作2020战略规划”为基础，在新全球背景下重申双方共同利益，同时也要更坦然地面对彼此差异，优先实现可达成的目标，优先发展关系尚不密切的领域。

Specifically, the report suggests the EU and China should:

报告特别指出，欧盟与中国应该：

Conclude a bilateral investment agreement as soon as feasible. Ongoing EU–China negotiations for an investment agreement can be used as a platform for addressing differences and facilitating further investment, focused on opening up each other’s service sector. An EU–China investment agreement has the potential to spur a new round of economic reform, including in the state-owned enterprises, and market liberalization in China.

达成可行性高的双边投资协议。欧中为达成投资协议而进行的不间断磋商可以充当解决分歧、促进进一步投资的平台，聚焦开放彼此的服务行业。欧中投资协议可能会掀起新一轮经济改革，包括国企的改革和中国市场自由化。

Open negotiations on establishing an EU–China free trade agreement (FTA). Such negotiations can be initiated upon the successful conclusion of the investment agreement between the EU and China. Trade in services should be actively promoted in both directions. Healthcare products and services is a good example of an area that can benefit both sides. Driven by the changing demographics of China’s aging population and the capacity gap in healthcare provision between the EU and China, it could become a major area for market opening.

就达成欧中自由贸易协定开启谈判。此类谈判可以在欧中投资协议尘埃落定后开启，积极推动服务业的双向贸易，医疗产品与服务是互利互惠的典型领域。中国老龄化人口比例发生变化，欧中之间医疗供给能力存在差异，受这些因素的驱动，医疗产品与服务有望成为市场开放的主要领域。

Contribute to strengthening mechanisms of good global governance. The EU and China both benefit from the multilateral trade system, and they are not direct competitors on security issues. With their combined economic weight they can do much to buttress the stability of the multilateral global order. To achieve this, the EU and China should agree approaches bilaterally, but channel this support through existing institutions such as the WTO and the G20. However, this EU–China cooperation should not disadvantage the US, given its paramount importance to both the EU and China as well as to the global economy. Moreover, the benefits of a closer EU–China relationship are likely to be enhanced if the EU27 and the UK are able to agree a sensible Brexit that ensures a continued close economic relationship between them. All three economies have a mutual self-interest in seeing a constructive outcome from the Brexit negotiations between the EU27 and the UK.

致力于强化全球治理良性机制。欧盟与中国均会从多边贸易体系中获益，且双方在安全问题上并非直接竞争对手。一旦双方的经济权重相结合，它们就能对维持多边全球秩序的稳定做出巨大贡献。为此，欧盟与中国双方应达成一致意见，而无需经过WTO、G20等既有机构同意支持。然而，欧盟与中国的合作不应对美国造成不利，因为美国无论对于欧盟和中国还是世界经济来说，都是至关重要的。此外，如果欧盟27国和英国能够达成合理的脱欧机制，并保证延续双方密切的经济关系，欧盟和中国的进一步合作将会使双方更加受益。三方经济体都从欧盟27国和英国之间的脱欧谈判中，看到了符合自身利益的建设性结果。

Facilitate people-to-people exchanges. All areas of deeper cooperation – from trade and investment to science and technology – would benefit greatly from targeted, reciprocal, multi-year and multiple-entry visas.

促进人文交流。定向签证、互惠签证、多年签证和多次入境签证将大大促进欧中在贸易投资、科技等各个领域的深化合作。

Use China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as a platform for further expanding bilateral trade and economic cooperation. New BRI-related investment, trade and industrial cooperation can help invigorate growth in the EU and its neighbourhood. The EU has the potential to become the western ‘anchor’ of the BRI, and its global trade could benefit substantially from the initiative, principally due to a reduction in transport costs. EU financial institutions can bring expertise in the long-term financial management of complex infrastructural investment projects, while European investment could help ensure BRI projects meet the necessary global environmental and sustainability standards.

将中国的“一带一路”倡议作为扩大双边贸易和经济合作的平台。新的“一带一路”相关投资、贸易及产业合作能够活跃欧盟及其邻国的经济增长。欧盟有潜力成为“一带一路”倡议的“西方之锚”，其全球贸易也可以从“一带一路”中充分获益，主要是得益于运输费用的减少。欧盟金融机构能够利用专业知识对综合基础设施项目进行长期的金融管理，而欧洲的投资能确保“一带一路”项目符合必要的国际环境和可持续性标准。

Deepen EU–China cooperation on energy security and climate change. In order to help sustain domestic and international progress towards the Paris goals, the EU and China could take a number of steps together, in accordance with the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and capabilities. These include pursuing theirIntended Nationally Determined Contributions, securing financing for programmes in the least developed countries, and deepening their cooperation on data sharing and transparency in multilateral forums. Climate finance, including green development finance, should be another key area for deeper cooperation.

深化欧盟和中国在能源安全和气候变化上的合作。为了使国内和国际继续朝着《巴黎协定》目标迈进，欧盟和中国可以依据共同的原则以及不同的责任和能力，共同采取一系列行动，包括践行“国家自主减排贡献”，为最欠发达国家提供项目融资，并在多边论坛中深化数据共享和信息透明的合作。气候融资，包括绿色发展融资，应该成为深化合作的另一个关键领域。

Focus on the opportunities offered by new breakthroughs in science, technology and innovation. The EU is a research giant facing an 'innovation emergency', while China is a rapidly rising science, technology and innovation powerhouse. The scope for cooperation is great. Both the EU and China will need to promote specific opportunities for technical cooperation wherever possible. Ultimately, what European and Chinese companies build and design together will be as important as what they sell to each other.

注重科技、创新带来的机遇。欧盟作为研究巨头正面临着“创新非常时刻”，而中国则是迅速崛起的科技创新强国。双方的合作前景非常广阔。只要有可能，欧盟和中国都需要促进特定的技术合作机遇。最终，欧洲与中国之间的技术合作将和贸易合作同样重要。

Support further EU–China cooperation in the financial sector. The massive demand for infrastructure financing in Asia and under the BRI will offer new opportunities for financial cooperation, especially if the two sides work together to use these opportunities to champion green financing mechanisms and products. Liberalizing the entry requirements for EU financial institutions into the Chinese market would enable them to support China’s reform and development of its financial services industry. Similarly, more Chinese financial institutions should be encouraged to operate in the EU.

进一步支持欧盟和中国在金融领域的合作。亚洲及“一带一路”倡议下的基础设施建设对融资有着大量需求，特别是如果双方共同利用这些机遇支持绿色融资机制和产品，这些都将为金融合作提供新的机遇。放宽对欧盟金融机构进入中国市场的准入要求，将能使其支持中国金融服务业的改革与发展。同样，应该鼓励更多的中国金融机构在欧盟运作。

作者

▲Tim Summers

查塔姆研究所亚洲项目高级顾问研究员

▲Alicia García-Herrero

布鲁盖尔研究所高级研究员

▲郭国全

香港大学经济金融学院名誉高级研究员

▲刘向东

中国国际经济交流中心副研究员

▲张燕生

发改委学术委员会研究员、中国国际经济交流中心首席研究员

Glossary：

common interest  共同利益

demographics  人口统计数据

strengthen mechanisms  强化机制，加强机制

global governance  全球治理

security issue  安全问题

economic weight  经济加权值，经济权重

global order  全球秩序，整体序

constructive outcome  建设性结果/成果

people-to-people exchanges  人文交流

multiple-entry visa  多次入境签证

bilateral trade  双边贸易

energy security  能源安全

climate finance  气候融资

green development finance  绿色发展融资

Intended Nationally Determined Contributions  国家自主减排贡献

the entry requirements  准入要求

culmination  顶点，高潮

economic collaboration  经济合作

political/economic system  政治/经济体制

frustrate  挫败，阻挠

genuine  真实的，诚恳的

converge  聚集，会合

inextricable  解不开的，难摆脱的，不能解决的，繁复的

incumbent upon …  责任在于…

build on …  扩建，添造；基于…；把…寄托于

candidly  坦白地，直率地

free trade agreement (FTA)  自由贸易协定

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